This is Dave Zinn with the avalanche forecast for Monday, January 6th, at 7:00 a.m. This forecast is sponsored by the Yellowstone Club Community Foundation and Montana State Parks. This forecast does not apply to operating ski areas.
This morning, mountain temperatures are in the teens and 20s F, with remarkably light winds from the west and northwest. The mountains around Bozeman and Big Sky received 6-7” of snow overnight, with 3” in Island Park and a trace to 1” elsewhere.
Today, temperatures will be in the teens and 20s F with light winds from the northwest and north. Snowfall continues today, with the mountains around Bozeman and Big Sky getting 3-6” by tomorrow morning and a trace to 2” throughout the rest of the forecast area.
All Regions
Dangerous avalanche conditions exist across the forecast area. Avalanches are likely to fail on persistent weak layers buried 2-4 feet deep (persistent slabs) and, around Bozeman and Big Sky, with higher 24-hour snowfall totals, slides will also release within the new snow up to 2 feet deep (storm slabs). Either flavor will be large enough to injure or kill skiers and riders.
Concerns about persistent slab avalanches failing multiple feet deep and widely across steep slopes should drive terrain selection today. Caution is warranted when traveling below steep terrain because of the potential of remotely triggering avalanches from nearby areas (Lionhead avalanche example). Avoiding steep terrain is the management strategy for today’s persistent slab avalanche problem.
In areas around Bozeman and Big Sky, where more snow is actively falling, storm slab avalanches failing 1-2 feet deep are a secondary concern. Last Friday, warming temperatures trapped low-density snow below heavier snow on top, creating slabs sensitive to human triggers. On Saturday, I toured on a day off and saw shooting cracks in the new snow on every steep rollover our group approached (observation). Avalanche activity and cracking across the snow surface indicate instability.
Notable Avalanches this Weekend include:
- A 500-foot-wide natural avalanche in Argentina Bowl in the Bridger Range (photo and details).
- A natural avalanche that failed on deeply buried weak layers on the north face of Mount Blackmore (photo and details).
- Skiers triggered many collapses in the Southern Gallatin Range, with one resulting in an interesting avalanche into Specimen Creek (photo and details).
- Skiers intentionally triggered an avalanche above Hebgen Lake that broke on weak layers near the ground (details).
- A natural avalanche in Airplane Bowl in the Lionhead area broke 600 feet wide on buried weak layers (photo and details).
- A steep slope avalanched while snowmobilers rode in a nearby flat terrain in the Lionhead area (photo and details).
- A wind slab avalanche broke 200 feet wide along the top of the Ramp in the Bridger Range as skiers approached the ridgeline (photo and details).
- More on the Avalanche Activity Log
So, when will conditions become safer? In the long run, deeper snowpacks tend to be more stable. In the short term, lots of snow equals lots of avalanches. Two weeks of near-constant storms have made for superb riding conditions. When it stops snowing, conditions will slowly stabilize. In the meantime, embrace the great backcountry skiing and riding on slopes less than 30 degrees (Ian’s video).
Human-triggered avalanches are likely, and the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE.
Thank you for sharing observations. Please let us know about avalanches, weather or signs of instability via the form on our website, or you can email us at mtavalanche@gmail.com, message us on social media, or call the office phone at 406-587-6984.
Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events
Our education calendar is full of awareness lectures and field courses. Check it out: Events and Education Calendar
Wednesday, January 8, 2025, 7-9:30 p.m., Avy Savvy Night at the Colonial Theater, Idaho Falls. More information HERE.
We offer Avalanche Fundamentals with Field Session courses targeted towards non-motorized travelers VERY SOON in January and one geared towards motorized users. Sign up early before they fill up.
Every weekend in Cooke City: Friday at The Antlers at 7 p.m., Free Avalanche Awareness and Current Conditions talk, and Saturday from 10 a.m.-2 p.m. at Round Lake Warming Hut, Free Rescue Practice.
THANK YOU - Fall fundraiser
On behalf of the Friends of the Avalanche Center, we would like to extend our heartfelt thanks for your generous support of the Powder Blast fundraiser. This is our largest fundraiser of the year. We are thrilled to share that, thanks to your contributions and the incredible generosity of an anonymous donor, we have successfully met our fall fundraising goal.
Tragically, a skier was killed, and a second sustained injuries in an avalanche in western Wyoming on Sunday (preliminary information). This is the fifth avalanche fatality this season. Our hearts go out to the skiers’ friends and family, backcountry partners, and the rescue teams.